ESPN update.Miami must prevent turnovers against Duke’s defense, which is good at forcing for them.

Miami must prevent turnovers against Duke’s defense, which is good at forcing for them.

 

Duke enters its matchup against Miami with a turnover margin of ten over the previous two games. Duke fell 28-27 in overtime versus SMU last week despite having a plus-six turnover advantage. To maintain control of the game against Duke, Miami must avoid turnovers. Duke ranks fourth in the nation with a plus-12 turnover margin. Miami ranks 32nd in turnover margin. Part of the rationale A plus three turnover margin vs the FCS program Florida A&M helps Miami move up to 32nd place. Miami ranks 56th nationally against FBS opponents in 2024, with a plus-three turnover margin. Miami falls to 66th nationally with a minus-one turnover margin against Power Conference.

 

Cam Ward, who led the nation with seven fumbles lost in 2023, has improved his ball-handling in 2024. Ward has only lost one fumble in 2024 and ranks 56th in interceptions thrown with five. Ward ranks 33rd nationally in interceptions thrown on 1.8% of his pass attempts. Duke leads the nation with 10 fumble recoveries, second with 14 forced fumbles, and 30th with nine interceptions. The Blue Devils have recovered five fumbles and intercepted five passes during the last two games. In 2024, SMU had a plus-7 turnover differential entering the game at Duke on Saturday.

Miami needs to avoid turnovers versus Duke defense adept at forcing them

Miami needs to avoid committing turnovers versus a Duke team fourth

 

Oct 26, 2024; Miami Gardens, Florida, USA; Miami Hurricanes quarterback Cam Ward (1) looks on from the sideline during a timeout against the Florida State Seminoles in the fourth quarter at Hard Rock Stadium. Mandatory Credit:

 

Duke enters its game with Miami plus 10 in turnover margin in the last two games. Duke somehow lost 28-27 to SMU in overtime last week despite a plus-six turnover margin. Miami has to avoid turnovers versus Duke to remain in control of the game. Duke is fourth nationally with a plus-12 turnover margin.

 

Miami is 32nd in turnover margin. Part of the reason A plus three turnover margin versus FCS program Florida A&M helps boost Miami to 32nd. Miami is 56th nationally versus FBS opponents in 2024 with a plus-three turnover margin. Miami falls to 66th nationally with a minus-one turnover margin versus Power Conference opponents.

 

 

After ranking first nationally with seven fumbles lost in 2023, Cam Ward has done a better job of taking care of the ball in 2024. Ward has lost only one fumble in 2024 and has only the 56th most interceptions thrown with five. Ward is 33rd nationally with interceptions thrown on 1.8 percent of his pass attempts.

 

Duke is first nationally with 10 fumble recoveries, second with 14 forced fumbles and 30th with nine interceptions. The Blue Devils have five fumble recoveries and five interceptions in the past two games. SMU entered the game at Duke on Saturday plus seven in turnover margin in 2024.

 

 

 

In their preview of Duke at Miami, Max Chadwick and Dalton Wasserman of Pro Football Focus examined turnover margin as a key for the game. Ward has a 2.6 percent career-low turnover-worthy play rate. That number is 3.3 percent versus Power Conference opponents which is closer to Ward’s career average.

 

Duke leads Power Conference teams nationally with 19 turnovers gained. Miami had a zero turnover margin versus California which is second nationally among Power Conference teams with 18 forced turnovers. California had a key pick-six though on an ill-advised throw by Ward across the middle of the field.

 

Duke is first nationally with 21 turnover-worthy plays. Opposing quarterbacks have a 50.6 passing grade from PFF and have nine turnover-worthy plays versus Duke. Expect a lot of mixed coverages and from the Manny Diaz-led defense frequent blitzing. PFF noted that Duke is 12th nationally in blitz percentage.